What’s in a number?
Unpacking the 65 million-forced displacement crisis
Tue,
06/20/2017
Regia,
from Somalia, greets her friends and customers in her shop on the main street
in the Nakivale refugee settlement, South West Uganda © Dorte Verner
Today on World Refugee Day, we hear once again that
the number of people forcibly displaced due to conflict and persecution has
increased to 65.6 million by the end of 2016, according to UNHCR’s latest Global
Trends report.
These numbers have served to galvanize attention to
the severity of this crisis, providing momentum for the global community to
take action. At the same time, these numbers have caused anxieties among many
hosts, especially in OECD countries. Taking center stage in the political
debate, it has raised questions over their ability to support all of those
fleeing conflict, at times leading to fear and rising anti-refugee sentiments.
Have we really entered a “new world” where
population movements are on a scale never experienced before, calling for
extraordinary measures to stop the flow? To answer this question, it’s worth
taking a closer look at the numbers.
The 65.6 million that have been forcibly displaced
are in fact comprised of four different groups of people that have very
different characteristics and are hardly comparable. These differences matter when considering a response, to inform policies
and determine appropriate solutions. This is the breakdown of the 65.6
million.
- 17.2 million refugees under UNHCR mandate: This includes 5.5 million Syrians, most of whom have been in exile for a few years in Jordan, Lebanon, or Turkey; but also 2.5 million Afghans, who often have been in Iran and Pakistan for decades; and about 1.4 million South Sudanese who are moving in large numbers into Ethiopia and Uganda as I write these lines.
- 2.8 million asylum-seekers: These are people who have applied for refugee status and are awaiting a decision: Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis who are in Germany, the US, or Italy for example.
- 5.3 million Palestinian refugees registered by UNRWA: This group has a specific status, one that is inherited, regardless of citizenship or where the person lives. It includes many who live under dire circumstances as well as others who now own business and are de facto included in their new host communities.
- 40.3 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): These are people who have been displaced by conflict and violence, but still live in their own country. This group, the largest by far, is also where statistics are weakest. It includes people who live in the midst of war (in Syria or Yemen) as well as people who have been displaced for a long time from unsafe rural areas to cities, such as in Colombia or the Caucasus. Their prospects and needs are differ considerably. Contrary to some assumptions, there is no evidence that IDPs will eventually leave their country to become refugees.
Missing from the 65.6 million is the number of
people who live in host communities – people whose lives are affected by the
arrival of large numbers of new comers. They need help to manage the crisis,
especially since 95% of the forcibly displaced live in developing countries,
often in remote areas where there are few opportunities.
It’s also important to note that counting refugees
is tricky. Unless they are in camps, they can be difficult to identify. Add to
this methodological and definition issues, and there is even less certainty.
For example, how many refugees were in Norway at the end of 2013? The question
seems simple enough, but the answer is not. The number ranges widely, from
18,000 according to Eurostat (the EU statistical office), 46,000 according to
UNHCR, and 132,000 according to Norwegian Statistics. Counting IDPs are even
more challenging.
Bottom line: of the 65.6 million people today who
are in forced displacement, only a very small fraction may eventually move to
OECD countries. In fact, of the ten largest refugee-hosting countries, only
Germany is in the OECD, at number eight in the rankings. Developing countries
are shouldering the largest share of this global responsibility.
Numbers can create perceptions that aren’t
necessarily founded in fact, and facts can be difficult to establish. What’s
even more important, we must not forget that this is not just about numbers.
These are people who have endured great hardships, who need help to become
self-reliant and contribute to development along with their generous hosts.
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